One of the main features of a
revolutionary situation is the suddenness with which the mood of the
masses can change. The workers learn quickly on the basis of events. And
the events of the last 24 hours (2 June) show that the workers and youth of
Egypt are learning fast.
One of the main features of a
revolutionary situation is the suddenness with which the mood of the
masses can change. The workers learn quickly on the basis of events. And
the events of the last 24 hours (2 June) show that the workers and youth of
Egypt are learning fast.
The
Egyptian Revolution is now entering into a new stage. The discontent
that has been accumulating for months in the depths of the masses
finally erupted in mass protests, which have continued overnight in
Cairo’s Tahrir Square.
“This feels like January 2011. It seems that the Revolution is back
in a big way.” These words by a BBC correspondent accurately convey the
essence of the situation, which is characterised by a rapid change in
the consciousness of the masses.
The spark that detonated the explosion was the result of the trial of
ex-President Hosni Mubarak, accused of complicity in the killing of
about 850 protesters during the revolutionary uprising of 2011. But in
reality it has far deeper causes, which are rooted in the development of
the Revolution itself. We see a similar process in every revolution,
not only in the Russian Revolution but also in the French Revolution of
1789-93.
A revolution is not a one-act drama. Neither is it a simple,
forward-moving process. The overthrows of Ben Ali and Mubarak were great
victories, but they were only the first act of the revolutionary drama.
Marx pointed out that the revolution needs the whip of the
counter-revolution to advance. Over a year since the start of the
Egyptian Revolution, the masses are stirring once more.
In my article two days ago I pointed out the following:
“We know from history that every revolution passes through an initial
phase of democratic illusions. The masses on the streets seem to be
advancing constantly, pushing aside all obstacles. It is like a
procession that can only go one way – upwards. The masses feel their
strength and believe themselves to be invincible. In this stage of the
revolution, the main idea is unity: the “people” are united in struggle
against a common enemy.“Then comes the second stage. Beginning with the most advanced and
politically conscious elements, the masses begin to understand that they
have been deceived, that none of their main objectives has been
achieved, and that, in essence, nothing has changed. This stage, which
is accompanied by a sense of frustration and all kinds of convulsive
uprisings, is the beginning of an inner differentiation in the
revolutionary camp. Gradually, the more revolutionary and proletarian
elements separate themselves from the vacillating elements, the
careerists and bourgeois politicians who have hijacked the Revolution
for their own ends.“This is an unavoidable stage. It is the stage through which the Egyptian Revolution is now passing.”
The events that are now unfolding have confirmed this hypothesis.
When Egyptians joined the revolt last year, they were demanding not only
a change of regime but a fundamental economic change. The Revolution
heightened expectations of improvements in living standards. But these
hopes were soon dashed. Millions of Egyptians are suffering from high
unemployment and prices, low wages, widespread poverty and all-pervasive
corruption. The Revolution was about bread, work and housing.
But over the last 15 months nothing has changed and most people have
even seen their financial position worsen. Many graduates cannot find
work. The poor become ever poorer. Unable to find proper work, many
Egyptians from poorer neighbourhoods have been forced into casual jobs
or selling cigarettes or fruit on the streets.
For these people, the presidential candidates have little meaning.
Whichever contender wins will be unable to deal with Egypt’s deep
economic crisis, or provide jobs and houses. Tourism, which used to
bring $1bn a month, has collapsed. Egypt is a net importer of energy and
has few natural resources. The price of energy is rising, putting a
heavy burden on the poor. Domestic production has halted in parts of
Egypt as hundreds of factories have closed down. Exports are also lower
compared to pre-revolution levels. Foreign investment has dried up,
frightened by the political upheaval.
The idea has taken root in the minds of the masses that nothing has
changed. Some of the names have changed, but the system remains the
same. The same bosses run the factories. The same corrupt officials
pocket the wealth of the nation. The same police chiefs are in charge of
the organs of state repression. The same generals pull the strings from
behind the scenes.
Now all the accumulated discontent and frustration have found a focal
point in the trial of Mubarak. It served to concentrate the attention
of the people.
The trial of Mubarak
The 84-year-old former president was the first former leader to be
tried in person since the start of the Arab Spring in early 2011.
Announcing the verdicts, Judge Ahmed Refaat said Mubarak and former
Interior Minister Habib al-Adly had “failed to stop security forces
using deadly force” against unarmed demonstrators.
In the end the two men were found guilty and sentenced to life
imprisonment. The judge, obviously fearing the popular reaction,
insisted that the 10-month trial had been fair. He said the Mubarak era
had been "30 years of darkness" and praised what he called "the sons of
the nation who rose up peacefully for freedom and justice". But these
words sound like a cruel mockery of the aspirations of millions of
ordinary Egyptians who risked their lives to defy the dictatorship on
the streets last year.
According to Egyptian law, the maximum penalty for these crimes is
death. Many Egyptians were killed during the uprising, and their
families and comrades expected that the man who was responsible for
these murders should pay the ultimate price for his crimes. Instead,
Hosni Mubarak can expect to spend a few years in a comfortable prison
cell, where all the luxuries will be provided until he is released on
grounds of “ill heath”.
The preparations for this trick are already being made. State
television reported that as he was being transferred to jail, Mubarak at
first refused to leave the helicopter and then suffered from severe
health problems. He has reportedly been admitted to the prison hospital.
To add insult to injury, Mubarak and his two sons, Alaa and Gamal,
were acquitted on separate charges of corruption, although his sons will
remain in detention as they are to be charged with stock-market
manipulation. Evidently, Plan A was to throw Mubarak like a bone to a
dog, in order to preserve the rest of the old regime. But if that did
not work, they would throw out his two sons as well. But things did not
go according to plan.
Immediately after the verdict, scuffles erupted in court. Outside,
sentencing was initially greeted by celebrations, but anger soon took
over when news of the acquittals spread. What made the crowds even more
furious was the acquittal of key security officials who were on trial
alongside Mubarak. Four interior ministry officials and two local
security chiefs were cleared of complicity in protesters’ killings.
Every single one of the police officers who ordered their men to fire on
unarmed demonstrators has been released without charge.
This sends a direct and very clear message to the organs of state
repression: you can carry on killing and torturing demonstrators with
complete impunity. It is this that has provoked the fury of the masses,
expressed in demonstrations all over Egypt. The protests in Cairo were
seconded by rallies against the verdict in Alexandria, Suez and
Mansoura.
A verdict that was meant to bring closure and terminate the Egyptian
Revolution has had the opposite effect. It has opened wounds that are
too recent and too deep to heal. It has forcefully reminded people that
none of the aims of the Revolution has been achieved. Above all, it has
exposed the fact that the old state apparatus remains virtually
unchanged. The slogan from last year’s uprising: "Down with the military
rule" is being chanted in the square and many have vociferously
condemned Saturday’s verdict.
Eighteen months after the start of the Revolution that was fought
under the banner of democracy, there is no democracy in Egypt. The trial
of Mubarak shows that all talk of law and justice is meaningless. There
is no independent judiciary: the judge in Mubarak’s trial was clearly
not impartial but a puppet of the regime. The Prosecutor General was
appointed by Mubarak himself.
Protesters at Tahrir Square, the focal point of last year’s uprising,
say they are determined to begin a sit-in. They have been joined by
prominent public figures and football fans known as Ultras, who have
been implicated in a number of political confrontations.
The BBC’s Yolande Knell, reporting from Tahrir Square, says there is
particular anger at the acquittals of the officials, which many take as a
sign that the talk of reform is hollow and nothing has changed.
"The Mubarak verdict mocks us. He and [former Interior Minister
Habib] Adly got a sentence and their aides got nothing," protester
Sharif Ali told the BBC. "When they return to court on appeal, they will
be freed too."
But, the BBC correspondent adds, others have poured on to the streets out of disillusionment at the current political situation.
Rigged elections
The recent presidential elections were organized by the same state
that was handed down from the Mubarak period intact, with all the old
bureaucrats, generals and assorted gangsters in charge. To expect fair
elections from this gang would be like asking pears from an elm tree.
The first round of recent presidential elections has left Egyptians
with a choice between an Islamist candidate and an ex-prime minister
from the Mubarak era, that is to say, no choice at all. The candidate of
the Left, Hamdeen Sabahi, the real candidate of the Revolution, was
pushed into third place behind the counter-revolutionary Ahmed Shafiq,
Mubarak’s last prime minister.
The presidential elections will solve nothing. The Egyptians people
anticipated dramatic economic improvements after last year’s uprising
but they did not materialise. They will demand that the new government
deliver on the promises of the revolution. But whether the Muslim
Brotherhood or Ahmad Shafiq forms the next government, nothing will be
solved. The crisis of capitalism rules out any improvement.
The budget deficit is close to 10% of GDP. The bourgeoisie is
demanding “serious reforms” (that is, deep cuts) in the subsidy system,
which takes up 30% of the national budget. But how can this be done
while protecting the poor? That is to say, how can one square the
circle?
As long as the capitalist system continues to exist in Egypt, the
only future that awaits the workers and peasants is one of poverty,
falling living standards, poverty and hunger. But this is not what the
Revolution was supposed to stand for! Already the workers are striking
for higher wages.
Impatience and the desire to find short cuts always lead to disaster.
It is a mistake to attach too much importance to ephemeral
developments, such as a (rigged) election. It is an even bigger mistake
to pay too much attention to the political struggle between different
factions of the bourgeoisie at the top, and insufficient attention to
the revolutionary trends that are developing at the bottom. The former
are related to the latter as the foam on the waves is related to the
currents in the depths of the ocean. That is to say, they are ephemeral
phenomena.
The Egyptian revolution will unfold over a period of years, with ebbs
and flows. There will be advances but also defeats and setbacks. But
through all this, the workers and youth will learn. This learning
process will be far shorter if the Egyptian Marxists do not make serious
mistakes, like the mistake of calling for a vote for the Muslim
Brotherhood. We must at all costs maintain absolute independence from
all factions of the bourgeoisie.
Combining political firmness with the necessary tactical flexibility,
the small forces of Marxism can begin to get an echo, beginning with
the most advanced workers and youth. The experience of a government of
the Muslim Brothers will open the eyes of the millions as to the real
class nature of this movement, exposing the gulf that separates words
and deeds, and preparing for a sharp turn to the Left at a later date.
The rigging of the elections has given a powerful impulse to the mass
movement. This underlines the incorrectness of the attempts to block
the advance of the counter-revolution by calling for a vote for the
Muslim Brotherhood as “the lesser evil”. In order to defeat the
counter-revolution what is needed is not electoral pacts and
combinations at the top, but the direct action of the masses.
The most advanced elements in Egypt have understood this. In a
protest against the rigging of the elections, protesters stormed the
campaign headquarters of Shafiq in the Fayoum area south of Cairo. This
and, above all, the mass protests on the streets of Cairo and other
cities, show that the Revolution is not defeated, that it still has
considerable reserves of energy, and that it will not surrender without a
fight. That and that alone, is what we must base ourselves on.
The Marxists must have faith in themselves, in their programme and
ideas. Above all, they must have faith in the revolutionary masses and
the working class. Let us remind ourselves that the decisive element in
the revolutionary equation, that eventually forced Mubarak out, was the
intervention of the working class, and the working class remains the key
to the whole situation.
The Egyptian Revolution was prepared by the biggest strike movement
Egypt has witnessed in more than half a century. From 2004 to 2008 over
1.7 million workers participated in more than 1,900 strikes and other
forms of protest. In the recent period there have been 3,000 strikes,
including all sectors, both government and private. Many of them were
successful, leading to wage increases. But the economic struggle is no
longer enough. Even when strikes are successful and wages are increased,
the effects are soon cancelled out by inflation.
The Egyptian Revolution has begun but it has not finished. In order
to solve the problems of Egyptian society, it is necessary to break with
capitalism, expropriate the capitalists and imperialists and carry out
the socialist transformation of society. This is both possible and
necessary. Let our slogan be:
"Thawra hatta’l nasr" (Revolution until Victory)
London, 3rd June, 2012
