Iran: In the footsteps of Tunisia and Egypt

History is indeed being written with
the fall of Mubarak and as the whole of the Middle East and North Africa
erupts in one revolutionary upheaval after another. This is also now
having an impact in Iran as the lines are once again being drawn for a
new round of battles since the eruptions that started one and a half
years ago. The focus is now on the call for a demonstration on Monday,
February 14.History is indeed being written with
the fall of Mubarak and as the whole of the Middle East and North Africa
erupts in one revolutionary upheaval after another. This is also now
having an impact in Iran as the lines are once again being drawn for a
new round of battles since the eruptions that started one and a half
years ago. The focus is now on the call for a demonstration on Monday,
February 14.

As
these lines are being written the Egyptian revolution has achieved its
first victory as President Mubarak has been forced to resign and the
crowds in Tahrir Square resounds with the thunderous roars of a jubilant
people.

The regime in Iran initially was wary of expressing any support for
the Tunisian revolution. They understood perfectly well that what was
happening could spread and threaten their own power. Terrified of the
effects of the Arab revolution inside Iran, it is now trying to confuse
the situation through its so-called support for the Egyptian revolution.
As they cannot hide what is going on in Egypt and the whole of the Arab
world, they are trying to distort reality and present the movement as
an Islamic revolution. The message they are trying to get across is
this: “look the Arab masses are in revolt because they want a regime
like the one we have in Iran.”

The Iranian masses, however, are not being fooled. They correctly see
the Arab revolution and the overthrow of ZineEl Abidine Ben Ali and
Hosni Mubarak as a point of reference. They understand that what the
Arab masses are fighting for is what the Iranian masses attempted to do
just over one and a half years ago, that is to overthrow despotic,
corrupt dictatorial regimes. Not only are the Iranian masses fed up with
the reactionary dictatorship of the mullahs, they are also being
plunged into desperate poverty by the “neo-liberal” policies of the
regime.

Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the so-called leaders of the
opposition, have called a demonstration in support of the Tunisian and
Egyptian revolution for Monday, February 14. In an atmosphere of extreme
tension, this demonstration could very likely re-ignite the protest
movement that started after the 2009 presidential elections.

Already, it seems, that the call is has received a wide echo among
the youth. A Facebook group (25 Bahman), set up only days ago, has
already seen more than 30,000 people joining. At many universities
around the country, legal and underground student organizations have
taken up the call and have started to mobilize around it.

Shockwaves from the Arab world

The overthrow of the Ben Ali dictatorship in Tunisia was indeed a
historic event. Most importantly it was the first time in modern history
that the masses in an Arab country had succeeded in directly toppling a
dictator. Now the next dictator is already on his way out. These
impressive acts cut right through the melancholy, hopelessness and
pessimism that had overshadowed the lives of millions of people in the
Arab world.

In spite of the many attempts of the rulers of these countries to
divide the Arabs and Iranians, the masses of Iran have been
instinctively drawn to the revolution in the Arab countries and many
lessons are already burrowing their way into their consciousness.

The first lesson from the experience of the Tunisian and the Egyptian
revolutions is clearly the necessity of the participation of the
organized working class with strike action. It is a fact that it was the
general strike in early January that gave Zane El Abidine Ben Ali the
final and decisive push before he fled the country. Also in Egypt it is
the strike movement, which has developed in recent days, especially when
this is threatening the strategically important Suez-canal, which has
raised the level of the struggle even higher, increasing the pressure on
the regime.

At the same time the movement in these two countries has also
highlighted the weaknesses of Iranian opposition leaders Mirhossein
Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Firstly it has shown the complete impotence
of the method of open letters and petitions, as opposed to mass action.
Also the idea of merely changing the face of the presidency to achieve
democracy has been thoroughly discredited. In fact the Tunisian
experience is highlighting the fact that as long as the old rotten state
apparatus remains it will form a reactionary bloc against the
revolution and the achievements of the people, that only a complete
shattering of the old state apparatus can satisfy the most basic needs
of the revolution.

The Iranian regime is indeed alarmed by the dangerous ideas that the
events in the Arab world is raising in the minds of the people of Iran.
After initially hesitating, the regime started to utter words of support
for the Arab movements. In his sermon during Friday Prayers in Tehran
on February 4, Ayatollah Khamenei claimed that the revolution in Egypt
is the continuation of the 1979 Revolution in Iran and called on the
Egyptian clergy to play a role in it [conveniently forgetting to mention
that the so-called Islamic revolution was in reality a bloody
counterrevolution that crushed the genuine mass movement that had arisen
in 1979].

It is clear that the Iranian regime is trying firstly, to confuse the
issue inside Iran as the Arab revolution is becoming a point of
reference for thousands of Iranians and secondly to derail the Arab
movements to suit the regime’s own strategic aims within the region.

But it is equally clear, that it will not succeed in its aims. It is
no secret that the regime has tried for many years to befriend the very
dictators it now denounces. Top Iranian officials have been courted many
times by the many Arab dictators. Ahmadinejad himself dispatched his
chief of staff and in-law Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei to Jordan with a
message for King Abdullah, and he has often expressed his hope of
re-establishing diplomatic relations with Egypt. At the same time, as
the days pass, it is becoming clear to all Iranians that the
revolutionary wave in the Arab world is aimed against totalitarian
dictatorships, corruption and poverty – all of which equally applies to
the Islamic Republic in Iran.

Cutting of subsidies – all-out attack on the masses

As the Arab masses rage over their living conditions, the people of
Iran are being pushed deeper and deeper into poverty and misery. The
regime, in conditions of chronic economic crisis, UN sanctions, the fall
in the price of oil since its peak of over $140 (oil is estimated
to count for 80 % of Iranian GDP) and pressure from the IMF, has been
forced to cut its subsidies on basic goods. The subsidies on goods such
as fuel, bread, cheese have been the Iranian equivalent of welfare
systems in the west, but just as in the west, capitalism can no longer
afford such “luxuries” and is going on to the offensive to protect its
profits.

On December 19, 2010 this so-called process of “rationalization” of
Iranian subsidies was officially put in motion by the Ahmadinejad
administration. The effects of these cuts have been massive. The
subsequent price hikes include a trebling of the cost of water and
electricity, a fourfold increase in the price of natural gas used in
home heating and cooking, and a tenfold increase in natural gas used as
vehicle fuel. The price of petrol is being raised by 4 times when bought
as part of Iranians’ monthly ration allotment, and by seven times for
other purchases. The price of flour has been raised by a factor of 40!
The price of bread has tripled, on average, the government says; water,
which used to be practically free, now costs between 10 cents and 85
cents per cubic meter, based on a sliding scale under which consumers
pay a higher rate the more they use.

The government says these are just the first steps in what it calls
an “economic transformation plan” that will also include banking reform,
sweeping changes in Iran’s tax and customs system, and ever more
privatization of state-owned industries.

At the same time a wave of factory closures is taking shape as the
subsidy cuts hit Iran’s medium sized private industries who for decades
have based their profits on subsidised energy prices. According to the
Iran Students’ Committee, factories making building blocks, the
machinery of which worked with electricity or gas oil, were reported to
have been forced to close and announce their bankruptcy after subsidy
cuts. Some of these factories are Tirche East Block, Omid Construction
Material and Tirche Block Bahador.

Thus, unemployment and inflation rates, that now stand at nearly 20
percent – nearly double the official figures of 11.8 percent and 12.2
percent respectively – looks to be on the rise.

A sick economy

Ahmadinejad has stated that the economic reforms will create heaven
on earth within five years, but for the majority of Iranians the reforms
will be a nightmare that will push hundreds of thousands more into
poverty.

Ruling over a sick economy, the regime does not have many other
options. The Iranian economy is a provider of raw material in the world
market, based mainly on oil and a buy-cheap-sell-expensive mentality of
the bazaar. Rather than investing in production and development, Iranian
capitalism is completely dependent on foreign capital (France, Germany
and increasingly, China) and the economy of the state is increasingly
dependent on the draining of oil and shady privatisation schemes.
Instead of investing in production, major industries like textile and
sugar are being dismantled, while Chinese produce, at ever higher
prices, are flooding the markets.

The Reformist wing of the regime has formally expressed some
discomfort at the policies of the regime, but their critique is merely
about the form and not the content. In fact the blueprint for the cuts
was already laid under the presidency of Rafsanjani.

The only answer to this programme would be to have a centralised and
democratic plan for the development and expansion of production and thus
of the economy, but this would implicate a break with all imperialist
allies and with capitalism in general. Such a programme would come
directly into conflict with the allies of Iranian capitalism – whether
Chinese, Russian, European or American. Neither the regime, nor the
“opposition” are capable of carrying out such a programme. It is only
the masses who have an interest in such a break. And the prospect of the
masses playing a vital role is getting more likely as they are
increasingly being dragged onto the scene – not by communist or
”reformist” agitators, nor by any so-called “dark foreign forces”, but
by the very policies of the regime itself.

Preparing a bread revolution

The policies of the government amount to an all-out attack on the
living standards of the masses. It is clear that Iranian capitalism
wants to unload the crisis onto the shoulders of the masses. The regime
is trying to soften the blow by offering a direct payment of $40 dollars
a month into the bank accounts of most Iranians an act that must be
very humiliating for most people. But this is not enough to cover what
has been lost through the cuts in the subsidies. And will in any case be
quickly eaten up by the high and rising levels of inflation.

Already we see how the masses are cutting in back in consumption as
they tighten their belts. The number of cab rides in Tehran for instance
has fallen drastically, as transportation costs rose 20% in the days
after the introduction of the cuts.

With this policy of cuts in subsidies, the regime is playing with
fire here. The cuts are bringing completely new layers into the
struggle. Transport workers are one of the first layers to be hit by
these attacks as the price of diesel has rise. Already in the days and
weeks after the introduction of the cuts we saw a number of isolated and
small eruptions. In several petrol stations there have been small
protests organised by ordinary people on the street. Also there have
been reports of crane operators going on strike. In Kerman there was a
strike of all heavy vehicle drivers, resulting in disruptions in
supplies to the bazaar.

In Bandar Abbas ferry boat employees stopped working and won a
concession from the provincial governor, who announced in a news
conference that ticket prices for 230 ferry boats would be raised by
20%. But even that may not be enough, according to some. One captain
told the Mehr news agency that his boat now needs $44 worth of fuel per
trip, but he only earns about $32.

Potential labour unrest among truck drivers in the cities of Isfahan
and Bandar Abbas was also only averted with the quick payment of bonus
compensation before trouble spread to other cities.

However, transport workers are not the only ones who are being
affected. The attacks are fuelling anger and desperation within hitherto
inert layers of Iranian society. The BBC published a very revealing
report showing the upheavals brewing beneath the surface:

“Shahrbanoo, a 57-year-old widow waiting in the long queue at a state
bank, burst into tears when she found out that she had not received the
money promised by the president.
"‘I am not familiar with the internet and new technologies, I have
not completed the registration process. How can I afford to live with
two daughters at home and pay the rising costs?’” (…)
“But in Iranian culture and diet, bread is central. Bread and cheese
are symbols of humbleness and are seen as food of the poor.”
“However, the price of both are going up noticeably across the country.
“The owner of a bakery in northern Tehran faced many angry questions from customers about bread prices.
"‘Officials should not play with the bread of the people. It may be
polluted with blood,’ he said, referring implicitly to his expectation
that riots would follow.”

Although all these incidents have been primarily isolated, they
express the uncertainty and nervous tension that is building up beneath
the surface of Iranian society. Not only are the struggles of the future
going to be more bitter, but new layers are being pushed up from the
depths of society.

Support the February 14 call!

As tensions are rising, the Mousavi and Karroubis call for a
demonstration could strike a nerve within the masses that are looking to
the Arab revolution as a point of reference. In fact the call itself is
a reflection of the pressure building up from below.

At the same time the successful use the methods of consistent direct
action, used by the Arab masses, exposes the emptiness of Mousavi’s open
letters and statements. At the same time these experiences, especially
those in Egypt, highlight the fact that mere one-day street
demonstrations are not enough either. What is needed is firstly a
sustained stepping up of pressure, a consistent programme for the
overthrow of the regime and most importantly the entrance of the working
class onto the stage with strike action. This was what gave the final
push to Ben Ali in Tunisia and this is what has finally given the death
blow to Hosni Mubarak.

By bringing society to a halt, cutting off the supplies and showing
the collective might of the working class, a general strike not only
significantly weakens the regime, but also strengthens the movement by
bringing out many new layers and increases morale. No force on earth can
withstand the might of the workers once they begin to move. Thus, a
general strike, more than anything poses the question of power within society. This has been impressively demonstrated in Egypt and Tunisia.

The February 14 demonstrations must be used as the first step to
build such a movement in Iran as well. The demonstration must be used as
an impulse to set up committees in all universities, factories and
neighbourhoods, to mobilize for the demonstrations and to organise for
the defence of the movement against the Basiji thugs. At the same time
the committees must be used to continue the movement and prepare for a
general strike for the overthrow of the regime.

All social layers in Iran are following the events in the Arab world,
the regime with great fear, the masses with great joy and anticipation.
This immense impulse must be used to gather all the forces of the
Iranian revolution and overthrow the rotten regime in Tehran.