Revolutionary Aftershocks... Libya, Bahrain, Algeria ...

In nature an earthquake is followed
by aftershocks. These can be as catastrophic in their effects as the
original explosion. What we are now witnessing is the same phenomenon
in terms of society and politics. The revolutionary earthquake in Egypt
and Tunisia has sent seismic shocks to the most distant parts of the
Arab speaking world. Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Sudan, Bahrain, Jordan,
Iraq, Yemen, Kuwait, Djibouti — the list is growing longer, not by the
day but by the hour.

In
Bahrain, which is next to both Iran and Saudi Arabia, the desperate
attempt of the monarchy to crush the mass movement in blood has failed.
The revolutionary people showed immense courage in the face of the
bullets of the regime’s hired mercenaries. As a result the authorities
were forced to retreat and withdraw the thugs in uniform, allowing the
masses to retake possession of Pearl Square, which has now become the
centre of gravity for the uprising, like Tahrir Square in Cairo.

The upheavals in Bahrain also represents a potential fuse that can
ignite a powder keg in neighbouring Saudi Arabia, where there is also a
large Shiia minority and an increasingly disaffected population.

The crisis is already beginning to affect the reactionary Saudi
regime. Last week the Mufti of Saudi Arabia warned the ruling clique
that unless they carried out urgent reforms to improve the living
standards of the Saudi people they could face overthrow like the
regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. In an unprecedented statement, he
criticised the royal family for its extravagance, contrasting it with
the poverty of the masses.

It is impossible to understate the importance of this development,
since the entire Saudi regime is based on an understanding between the
House of Saud and the clergy. A split between them would be a clear
harbinger of a revolutionary crisis in this bastion of reaction in the
Middle East and the broader Islamic world. It is something that sends
shivers up the spine of the US imperialists.

In Iran also there are indications that the mass movement is
reviving. There are clear signs of splits in the regime and in the state
upon which it rests. According to a document received by The
Telegraph, several lower ranking commanders of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards (a professional militia counting 120,000) have
signed a document stating that they do not want to shoot on
demonstrators. As we have pointed out in Marxist.com, if this document
is correct, it marks a very important milestone in the development of
the Iranian revolution.

Febraury 21, Bahrain. Photo: Mahmood Al-YousifThe
hypocrisy of the imperialists knows no bounds. On the one hand they
are obliged to make noises in public expressing their profound sympathy
with the pro-democracy movement. But in reality they have backed every
reactionary regime in the region, including Bahrain, which is home to
the Fifth Fleet, the main US naval force in the Middle East. The
British and Americans have armed these regimes for decades against
their own populations. The tear gas and rubber bullets and other symbols
of western democratic civilization used on the protesters in Pearl
Square come from Britain, where the government is currently
“reconsidering” its policy on arms sales to places like Bahrain and
Libya.

Iraq

For all their economic and military might, the US imperialists are
powerless to intervene directly against the revolution. They have
already burnt their fingers badly in Iraq. Nine years, hundreds of
thousands killed and maimed, and billions of dollars later, Iraq is no
closer to “democracy” and “freedom” than when GW Bush toppled the US’
former ally in Baghdad. Ironically, the debt incurred during this
adventure has laid the foundations for mass unrest in the US itself.
Despite this draining of blood and treasure, the US still does not and
cannot control Iraq. By contrast, masses mobilizations and pressure of
the masses has resulted in the overthrow of two dictators with more to
follow. This exposes the lie by the imperialists that only they can
bring “civilization” to the “backwards” peoples of the region, which
was, lest we forget, the cradle of human civilization.

The
revolutionary wave sweeping the region shows that once the masses are
mobilized, no force on earth can stop them. Not even the mighty Mubarak
could survive. If it can happen in Egypt, it can happen anywhere. Now,
in Kurdish Iraq, mass unrest has erupted, threatening the shaky
edifice put in place by the imperialists as they try to cut their
losses while maintaining influence over the country’s affairs – and
oil.

Tunisia

In Tunisia tens of thousands marched over the weekend in the main
cities against the Gannouchi government and demanding the immediate
convening of a Constituent Assembly. “The Tunisian revolution is not
over yet” was the common message of these demonstrations. The largest
of these demonstrations took place in the capital Tunis on Sunday
February 20, where tens of thousands marched to the government building
shouting slogans like “Leave – Degage” and “We don’t want the friends
of Ben Ali”. Most media sources tried to minimise the size of this
protest, but Reuters journalists who were present put the number in
attendace at a massive 40,000. This video clearly shows there were at
least tens of thousands present (Video ). Similar marches took place in Sfax (Video ), Kairouan (Video ), Bizerte (Video ), Monastir and other cities with thousands demonstrating.

Despite heavy police presence and the army firing on the air, the
protestors, youth and trade unionists, camped in the Kashba Esplanade,
outside the government building, from where they had been forcibly
removed four weeks earlier. Reports on Monday were of widespread school
student walk outs in different cities and many of them marching to join
the protestors at the Kashba. It is clear that after a short period of
reorganisation, after the UGTT bureaucracy gave legitimacy to the
Gannouchi government, the revolutionary movement of the Tunisian masses
has gained renewed strength.

Libya

The revolutionary wave has reached its latest and bloodiest point of
influx in Libya, where the situation has now reached white heat.
Sandwiched between Tunisia and Egypt, many commentators (and Gadaffi
himself!) imagined Libya could somehow avoid the general conflagration.
According to the latest reports the uprising has spread from eastern
Libya to the capital of Tripoli. Last night heavy gunfire was heard in
central Tripoli and other districts. Al Jazeera puts the number of
people killed in Tripoli at 61. Other unconfirmed reports say
protesters attacked the headquarters of Al-Jamahiriya Two television and
Al-Shababia as well as other government buildings in Tripoli
overnight.

The People’s Conference Centre where the General People’s Congress
(parliament) meets was set on fire, and police stations and other
government buildings were also attacked, ransacked and set on fire. This
is now a full-blown armed insurrection. Clashes have been going on
between the protesters and security forces in eastern cities of the
country and in Benghazi in particular, where opposition to Libyan leader
Moammar Gaddafi is most intense. But this has spread to the south and
wets of the country and to Tripoli itself.

The protests in Tripoli were not pacified but intensified following a
televised speech by Gaddafi’ s son Seif al-Islam. He promised
political, social and economic reforms and said that the killing of
demonstrators was a “mistake”, but described the protesters as drunks
and drug addicts following orders from foreigners. He promised a
conference on constitutional reforms within two days and said Libyans
should "forget oil and petrol" and prepare themselves for occupation by
"the West" and 40 years of civil war if they failed to agree.

The younger Gaddafi attempted to draw a contrast between the
situation in Libya with the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia: “Libya is
different, if there is disturbance it will split into several states,”
he said. But the same things were said before about Egypt, which was
said to be different to Tunisia and therefore immune to revolutionary
contagion. Events soon exposed the hollowness of these assertions. There
were no pyramids in Tunisia and there are none in Libya. But there is
mass discontent in all these countries, which is seeking a way out. The
harder it is repressed, the more violent will be the explosion when it
finally breaks through.

The speech implied that the army and national guard would crack down
on “seditious elements” spreading unrest: “You can say we want
democracy and rights, we can talk about it, we should have talked about
it before. It’s this or war. Instead of crying over 200 deaths, we will
cry over hundreds of thousands of deaths.

“We will fight to the last minute, until the last bullet,” Gaddafi
said. But the question is: for whom is the last bullet reserved?

Civil War

Saif Gaddafi admitted that some military bases, tanks and weapons
had been seized and acknowledged that the army, under stress, opened
fire on crowds because it was not used to controlling demonstrations.

Witnesses in Libya have reported that some cities, especially in the
east, which is perceived as less loyal to Moammar Gaddafi, have fallen
completely into the hands of civilians and protesters. After the
speech, the protesters in the street began chanting slogans against
Seif al-Islam as well as his father.

There have been reports of army defections in Benghazi and Al Bayda
in eastern Libya from February 20, and now spreading unrest to Tripoli
on Feb. 21, This suggest that the regime is losing its grip on the the
situation.

Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst, said Saif Gaddafi’s speech appeared “desperate”.

“It sounded like a desperate speech by a desperate son of a dictator
who’s trying to use blackmail on the Libyan people by threatening that
he could turn the country into a bloodbath,” Bishara said.

“That is very dangerous coming from someone who doesn’t even hold an
official role in Libya — so in so many ways, this could be the
beginning of a nightmare scenario for Libya if a despotic leader puts
his son on air in order to warn his people of a bloodbath if they don’t
listen to the orders or the dictates of a dictators.”

If the Libyan regime tries to cling to power by force it may end up
like the regime of Ceaucescu in Romania. Such a prospect is a nightmare
scenario for the imperialists and their puppet regimes everywhere. The
latest reports indicate that the Libyan air force and navy are firing
on rebellious military installations and even civilians. It would now
appear that open civil war has erupted as Gaddafi desperately clings to
power, but it is a gamble he may well not win.

Wherever one looks, the whole vast expanse of North Africa and the
Middle East is in flames. Regimes which were regarded as stable and
unassailable only two months ago, are being rocked to their foundations.
The Arab masses who were described in contemptuous terms by bourgeois
commentators, as passive, ignorant and apathetic, have emerged as the
most revolutionary force on the planet. This is a major turning point
not only in the history of this region but in world history.

The Bible says “the first shall be last, and the last shall be
first”. Those who for so long regarded themselves as the “vanguard” have
shown themselves to be completely unprepared and out of step with the
real movement of the working class and the youth. Those who were
“advanced” have turned out to be the most backward and retrograde
elements in the equation. And those who were supposed to be “backward”,
now stand in the front line. Thus it is, thus it always was.

In 1917, during the Russian Revolution, Lenin said that the working
class is more revolutionary than the most revolutionary party. The
events of 1917 proved him to be correct. On the streets of Cairo,
Teheran, and Manama, history is being repeated. The revolutionary
instincts of the masses have carried the movement forward despite all
obstacles. They have brushed aside bullets and truncheons as a man swats
a mosquito. The only thing that is lacking here, that guaranteed the
final victory in 1917, is the presence of a genuine revolutionary party
and leadership.

What is astonishing is the extraordinary degree of revolutionary
maturity shown by the workers and youth of these countries. With no
party, no real leadership, no preconceived plan of action, they have
achieved miracles. They bring to mind the marvelous movement of the
workers of Barcelona, who in 1936, armed with just sticks, knives, and
old hunting rifles, stormed the barracks and smashed the fascist
counterrevolution. They bring to mind the Paris Commune, which in the
words of Marx, “stormed heaven”.

It is impossible to predict with accuracy how the revolution will
develop. This will depend on a number of factors, both objective and
subjective. But in the absence of genuine revolutionary leadership, it
is inevitable that the revolution will be prolonged in time. There will
inevitably be ups and downs, ebbs and flows, periods of euphoria
followed by disappointment, defeats, and even periods of reaction. But
it will be impossible to reestablish anything resembling stability as
long as the capitalist system exists. One regime of crisis will follow
another.

February 11, Tahrir Square. Photo: Ramy RaoofThe
most important thing, however, is that the revolution has begun. It is
impossible to turn the clock back in any of these countries. And
through all the stormy events that are unfolding and will unfold over a
period of months and even years, the working class and the youth will
learn. They will learn which parties and leaders have betrayed them and
which can be trusted. In the end, they will come to understand that the
only way forward is a radical break with the past and the complete
elimination, not just of this or that leader or regime, but of a
fundamentally unjust system of society.

The overthrow of Ben Ali and Mubarak was the work of the
revolutionary masses, and in particular the working class and the youth.
These are the only genuinely revolutionary forces in society. There
can be no solution to the problems of these countries unless and until
the working class takes power into its own hands and expropriates the
wealth of the oligarchy and imperialism.

When the present wave of fighting is over, when the clouds of
teargas and gunpowder is lifted, the workers and youth will look around
and see that they are not alone. The revolutionary movement has gone
beyond all the artificial frontiers established by imperialism in the
past, frontiers that cut across all natural boundaries and divide the
living body of the peoples. The power of imperialism over the peoples of
North Africa and the Middle East is based on this criminal division.
To overcome it is essential if the peoples are ever to achieve their
freedom and raise themselves to their true height.

The instinct of the masses is to spread the revolution. It is
spreading and will spread further. This poses the question of the unity
of the peoples of the region. The only way to achieve this is through a
Socialist Federation of the North Africa and the Middle East, not as a
utopian and distant aim, but as a burning and urgent necessity.