The results of the Spanish elections on Sunday November 20
represented a massive defeat for the Socialist Party (PSOE) which had
introduced austerity measures to make the workers pay for the capitalist
crisis, rather than a victory for the right wing Popular Party (PP)
which will now have to introduce even more savage austerity cuts in the
face of the acute crisis of Spanish capitalism.
The results of the Spanish elections on Sunday November 20
represented a massive defeat for the Socialist Party (PSOE) which had
introduced austerity measures to make the workers pay for the capitalist
crisis, rather than a victory for the right wing Popular Party (PP)
which will now have to introduce even more savage austerity cuts in the
face of the acute crisis of Spanish capitalism.
Mariano Rajoy, leader of the PPThe
Popular Party received 10.8 million votes (an increase of only 550,000
in relation to the previous general elections in 2008, barely 5% more)
which give it 186 seats. This is an overall majority and will allow it
to rule without the need to reach any deals with other parties.
The PSOE, which was in power since 2004, was severely hammered,
receiving only 6.9 million votes, a loss of over 4.3 million votes (that
is a loss of 38% of the total number of votes it got in 2008). This is
the worst result since 1977 for the Socialist Party in number of votes
and the worst ever result since the restoration of democracy percentage
wise and it gives the PSOE only 110 members of parliament.
The reasons are clear: Spain has suffered a particularly acute
manifestation of the crisis of capitalism. The social impact of the
recession which started in 2008 has been brutal for working class
families. Unemployment has jumped from under 8.3% in 2007 to 21.5% now
(from 1.8 million to 3.8 million), the highest in the OECD. Youth
unemployment is close to 50%. The number of families who have seen their
homes repossessed since the beginning of the crisis stands at over
300,000 (while there are 3.4 million empty properties which cannot be
sold in the market). The level of poverty has jumped to over 20% and
many families, having exhausted any unemployment benefits now depend on
charity from NGOs, Church organisations and others.
The PSOE government, led by Zapatero, was elected in 2004 with the
votes of millions of workers and youth who had mobilised against the
hated right wing government of Aznar, particularly against Spanish
participation in the Iraq war. They hoped that Zapatero would carry out
progressive policies. But as soon as the economic crisis struck, the
social democratic Zapatero became the best implementer of the policy
needed by capitalists and bankers: make the workers pay for the crisis.
The turn became symbolised by a phone call from Obama in May 2010, in
which he told Zapatero in no uncertain terms that “bold reforms” (read
counter-reforms) were urgently needed. Amongst other austerity measures,
Zapatero lengthened the retirement age to 67 and cut the wages of civil
servants. None of these measures solved Spain’s economic problems, but
only made them worse.
By the end of Zapatero’s government there was almost a national unity
pact with the right wing PP, which meant enshrining the “principle” of
“balanced budgets” into the constitution with almost no parliamentary
consultation in August 2011. This was done in the name of “reassuring
the markets”. In the week leading up to the elections, the yield on
Spanish bonds shoot up into bail out territory reaching a record 7% for
10 year bonds.
In this context, Zapatero stepped down as president and called early
elections. The attempts by PSOE candidate Rubalcaba to present himself
as a “social democrat”, a defender of public services and the welfare
state fell on deaf ears. Why have you not done in power what you now
promise, thought millions of PSOE voters. Many of them simply stayed
home (turnout was down 2 percentage points or 1.5 million voters less),
some shifted to the left and voted United Left and others went to other
formations like the UPyD, which presents itself as “progressive”.
The main lesson in the defeat of the PSOE, which follows the defeat
of the Portuguese Socialist Party and the collapse in the popularity of
Papandreou’s PASOK in Greece is two-fold. Firstly, in the middle of the
crisis of capitalism there is no room for social democratic reforms. The
only policy possible is one of massive attacks on the working class.
Secondly, this inevitable leads to electoral collapse as these are
parties which receive their votes from the working class.
The results of United Left (IU) represent a significant increase in
votes, from 780,000 to 1,680,000 which give them 11 members of
parliament (as opposed to 2 in 2008). To many, IU was still too small to
represent a real challenge to the main parties. Yet, it is clear that
it received the vote of a whole layer of workers and youth who have been
drawing political conclusions from the experience of the last 2 or 3
years. It was not only the experience of the economic crisis but also
the experience of the mass mobilisations of the indignados
(indignant) on May 15, June 19 and October 15, bringing out hundreds of
thousands, millions of people to protest against the capitalist crisis.
It is also interesting to note that the attempt to set a more
moderate left-green party in between IU and the PSOE, a project backed
by some who have split to right from IU and some who are still linked to
IU (like the ICV in Catalonia) has completely flopped, despite having
access to money and media exposure. It polled barely 0.8% nationally,
and only got one member of parliament for Valencia where there are local
particularities.
The increase in votes for United Left is clearly the result of it
being seen as more to the left and more in tune with the movement of the
youth in the streets. Some prominent activists in the May 15 indignado
movement figured as candidates, for example. This is the correct
direction IU should be moving in. Its current program, while being a
progressive program of reforms, does not really stand up to the test of
the seriousness of the crisis of capitalism that we are facing, in Spain
and worldwide.
The problems that millions of workers are facing are not the result
of “neoliberal” governments and policies, nor the “pressure of the
markets”. If that were true, it would be enough to change governments
and regulate the markets and the financial sector. However, these are
just expressions of the deep crisis of the capitalist system as a whole.
One cannot tinker with the system, nor convince the capitalists to
invest in production and create jobs, while defending and improving
wages and conditions.
What should be put into question is the capitalist system as such.
Communist Party general secretary and IU candidate Centella has talked
of the need for “democratic planning of the economy”. This is correct.
But in order to plan the economy, the means of production must be taken
away from the capitalists and bankers, to be used in the interest of the
majority.
What is needed is a program that openly challenges capitalism and
poses a socialist alternative: the common ownership of the means of
production so that the economy can be democratically planned in the
benefit of working people. The conditions to explain such ideas have not
been so favourable for a long time. Millions of workers and youth,
through their own experience have started to challenge and question the
capitalist system which is in crisis. Marxists must participate in the
debates that have already opened up within United Left and in the wider
movement to patiently and comradely explain these basic ideas.
The results in the Basque Country would need a separate analysis. Amaiur (the coalition around the abertzale
nationalist radical left and EA) got 333,000 votes and 7 members of
parliament, making it the first party in the Basque Community and
Navarra in number of MPs and only narrowly the second in number of
votes. Suffice to say that the results, which match the best historical
results of Herri Batasuna and EA put together, is based on a left wing
“anti neoliberal” program and the hopes in a political solution to the
Basque struggle after the announcement of ETA’s abandonment of armed
struggle.
The newly elected PP right wing government of Rajoy will now face an
impossible task that he is already dreading. The European Union has
demanded 30 billion euros worth of additional cuts (more than double
what the PSOE government already implemented). The “markets” (the
bankers and speculators, the capitalists and financiers) are already
demanding their pound of flesh to be cut from the living body of the
Spanish working class, with the editorials of all the worlds capitalist
newspapers demanding that Rajoy reveals his economic policies. The Wall Street Journal editorial thundered: “Mariano Rajoy has won a big majority, but now he has to use it.”
The Financial Times editorial introduced a sense of urgency, pressing
Rajoy to move “quickly to implement painful spending cuts and other
austerity measures.”
After having demagogically attempted to stand to the left of the PSOE
during the campaign and refused consistently to explain his real
program, now Rajoy looks very worried and is attempting to prepare
public opinion for what is coming. “It is no secret to anyone that we
are going to rule in the most delicate circumstances Spain has faced in
30 years,” he said and added: “there are no miraculous cures to solve
Spain’s economic troubles.”
He seemed to be pleading with the capitalists in his first speech,
arguing that election winners “must be given a little room for manoeuvre
that should last more than half an hour.” The markets answered with
further attacks on Spanish bond yields and falls in the stock exchange.
Angela Merkel called him on Monday morning to dictate the terms. “This
is a difficult time for Spain and Europe and you have received a clear
mandate from your people to adopt and implement without delay the
necessary reforms”, she said. We want massive cuts and we want them now
was her message.
The straight talking president of the bosses’ confederation CEOE
Arturo Fernandez has said that the economic situation is “unsustainable”
and the country is staring “into the abyss”. He has demanded “brutal
changes” in labour law (ie the abolition of collective bargaining and
the right for bosses to hire and fire at will), and warned that the
“measly reforms which have been introduced so far” are not enough and
that “deep thorough changes” are needed.
What Rajoy will have to do is clear: increase indirect taxation, cut
public spending in health and education, introduce part payment of
health services, increase tuition fees, destroy collective bargaining
and attack employment rights, further cut public sector workers wages,
further attacks on pensions, etc. Such policies will only provoke a
deepening of the recession and even more attacks on the working class.
If Merkel, Rajoy and the Spanish ruling class think that the election
results mean a firm and solid mandate for austerity cuts, they are in
for a big surprise. Such a policy will provoke, sooner than later, a
massive explosion of the class struggle. Greek-style attacks will
inevitably lead to Greek-style class struggle.
The leaders of the PSOE can be counted upon to act in a responsible
and statesman like way, for the good of the country (that is for the
good of the capitalists and bankers, in Spain and abroad). National
unity (read national austerity) will be the motto of the day like in
Greece and Italy.
The leaders of the trade unions will also be put under enormous
pressure to join this chorus of national unity. However, like in Greece
and Portugal before, pressure from below will force the unions to act
and its leaders to adopt a more militant stance or be replaced by others
who will.
The stage is set for massive class battles. It will be through these
that workers and youth will draw more advanced political conclusions.
